Losses Swell for the World’s Airlines, Trade Group Says

PARIS — Despite early signs of global recovery, rising fuel costs and weak travel demand are keeping the world’s airlines in “survival mode,” with predicted losses now expected to swell to $11 billion by the end of the year, a leading industry trade group said Tuesday.

The International Air Transport Association revised a June forecast of a $9 billion industry-wide loss in 2009 and said the pain would continue into next year, with an expected loss of $3.8 billion in 2010.

“The global economic storm may be abating, but airlines have not yet found a safe harbor,” said Giovanni Bisignani, chief executive of the association, which includes 230 of the world’s largest carriers. “The crisis continues.”

The news came as Japan Airlines announced plans to cut 6,800 jobs, trim routes and quickly secure emergency funds from an overseas carrier, stepping up restructuring efforts amid mounting losses that threaten to pull the flag carrier under.

Global revenue is set to drop by 15 percent to $455 billion, though it is expected to stabilize by next year as airlines continue to park aircraft and reduce flight frequencies in order to keep seats filled.

Still, the association warned that it could take at least three years before revenue returns to the peak of $535 billion seen in 2008.

Global airline revenues are set to drop by 15 percent to $455 billion, the I.A.T.A. said, though they are expected to stabilize by next year as airlines continue to park aircraft and reduce flight frequencies to keep seats filled. Still, the group warned that it could take at least three years before revenues return to the peak of $535 billion seen in 2008.

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The air association more than doubled its predicted losses for North American and European airlines, saying that high levels of unemployment and consumer debt in those regions would continue to restrain spending on air travel.

North American carriers are now expected to lose $2.6 billion this year, up from an earlier forecast of $1 billion, while European airlines will probably lose $3.8 billion, compared with the $1.8 billion predicted previously.

Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region, where consumers are less burdened by debt, will probably see a faster and stronger improvement in traffic, the air association said. The region is expected to post a loss of $3.6 billion this year, but should return to modest profitability by the end of 2010.

Middle East and Gulf carriers, meanwhile, are bouncing back rapidly. The trade group slashed its forecast losses for the region to just $500 million this year from $1.5 billion previously, as carriers like Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways continue to capture market share on long-haul routes to Europe and the Far East.

Average fares per mile, known as yields, are expected to fall 12 percent this year as a 20 percent drop in demand for business- and first-class travel has forced airlines to slash premium ticket prices — traditionally the industry’s biggest moneymakers. Coupled with a 15 percent drop in cargo revenue, the air association warned that the current crisis would “leave a lasting mark” on the industry’s structure.

Many airlines are already charging extra for checked luggage and meals, while cutting back on the number of first- and business-class seats in their cabins. In Europe, a growing number of main line carriers have done away with premium seats altogether on flights of less than three hours.

The association said it had also revised its estimate for world airline losses in 2008 to $16.8 billion from $10.4 billion, to reflect accounting changes and restatements by some of its 230 member airlines.

“The bottom line of this crisis — with combined 2008-9 losses at $27.8 billion — is larger than the impact of 9/11,” Mr. Bisignani said. The terrorist attacks on the United States in September 2001 resulted in total industry losses of $24.3 billion through the end of 2002.