Global Forex Trading And Very Important Factors

The Forex Market has 46 currency pairs on a conservative estimate. Telling you that you would need to keep an eye on developments on all the countries of the globe would be asking too much of you. For starters, you could keep an eye on developments of the countries whose currencies who have invested in the Forex Market. Look for economic and political developments that could create a stir in the forex market.

Why monitoring the political and economic scenarios of countries are important to global Forex trading?

As it has been observed statistically, the value of currency of a country changes a lot due to the economic and political climate of the country. For example, the Federal Rate cuts on Interest rates aimed at controlling the sub-prime crisis in USA increased the value of the US Dollar. Don't get carried away of you get a cue from one such indicator. Please make a list of all such factors that would impact a currency in the Forex Trading Market.

A long pending factor to a currency movement is the price of crude oil per barrel. As the price of crude oil inches towards $100 per barrel, the US Dollar is inching towards new lows by the day. In such a scenario, you would think that the US Dollar could be undermined severely.

The sentiments of traders across the globe should also be considered

It is important that you stay updated with other traders of the forex market too. At the end of the day, traders and the developments in a country impact the pricing of a currency at 50:50 ratio. A classic example of this is the rebound of US Dollar. It has been observed that the Dollar has hit new lows almost every other day of the trading. Last week, a lot of people realized that the Dollar has much more potential than what it shows. This triggered widespread buying of the Dollar.

How would all this impact you as a trader?

Let's take the example of EUR/USD. Let us assume that you had bought some USD two months ago when it was getting battered. Now with the correction taking place, you are more or less in a position to decide if you wish to stay in the market or exit booking your profits. The correction trend is expected to continue to till the new year after which the forecast for the Dollar looks a bit bleak.

Ideally, a smart trader would book his profits partly on the resounding correction of the US Dollar. He would keep a part of the money invested in the market to see how the Dollar behaves. The point being made here is that your eye on the economic developments of the country could be the best indicator for you to analyze your buy and sell points in the trade.

Which factors to be considered in forex trading?

Growth, Inflation, Crude Oil Prices - are three important factors in no order of priority would need to be taken into count when you make a sell or a buy call in a currency. Please note that there is no direct correlation between these three but all these impact the movement of a currency.

Successful Forex trading is about how you look at the developments of a country. Taking macro and micro economic factors into consideration will make you a smart trader instead of a speculative trader. As it goes, the speculative trader may make a lot of money but will also lose a lot of money.

FOREX NEWS

Global Recession - Is it really Over?

The Central Bankers of the world met this past weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Known for hoards of Deer, Elk, hunters and hamburgers, this relatively small frontier town became the center of the financial world for a few days – and will be widely remembered from this day forth as the place in which the global recession was officially declared over.

Just don’t tell those 14% of industrialized workers who are without work, don’t tell those farmers who are selling items at 2/3rds less than what they were last year because of trade restrictions, and don’t tell the Central Bankers themselves, because in the end – the meeting and declaration was more politically motivated than factually motivated.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the EU Central Bank President, gave a speech that can be defined as optimistic, or if you are one of those protagonists, you could have derived a negative message from him.

Ben Bernanke who heads up the US federal reserve was chipper and growth focused in his remarks – notwithstanding the actual numbers, he used words like “I feel” and “in my opinion” to describe the economic recovery – terms usually reserved for politicians and not numbers oriented Central Bankers. Good for him though as President Obama rewarded him with another term as Fed chairman for his efforts.

The Forex marketplace this week has been slow and light, most everyone is off in some vacation spot, perhaps hunting Deer and Elk or eating burgers. Forex traders have not been moving the markets these past few days – and neither has any news for the most part.

The summer is winding down, quarter 4 is around the corner and the world is anxiously awaiting something to happen. In Europe, Germany’s growth and true recession exit is marred by the other EU countries that are still suffering double digit unemployment and negative growth.

In the US everyone, including the politicians and policy makers are on vacation, trying to regroup and figure out how to spend another Trillion Dollars that they don’t have on a healthcare package. And in China, they are selling their Dollars (shhhhhh).

In a world in which the lines between fact and political fiction, it is difficult to pin just where this economy is going. Yes there is some signs that things are getting better, but there also so many signs that there is bad news on the horizon.

In the past 3 months alone, 650 banks have closed in the EU and US – the pains are still there from last year. Unemployment numbers are still rising – and the politicians warn us this is going to happen for a while longer.

But something is happening, we are reaching a critical point in which something will happen. My belief is that it will not be good, but it can turn out to be positive – the haze of summer is upon us and Forex traders and online Forex bloggers like me are looking for a break in the air – a little clarity – and we are not getting it from those who are charged with honesty and truthfulness.

Keep your eyes open – next week will be a good one for numbers. For this week, enjoy the quiet, it is usually like this before the storm.

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Banks score big on the Economy

I have been so perplexed over the past week, hearing US Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke give a rally cry to the bulls, watching the positive data (or so it was interpreted as) come out and give hope, and seeing the Dollar hold steady.

I really believed that the Dollar would begin a more dramatic cave. But as it seems this was not to be, not just yet. You have bad data still, you have China unloading their Dollars, you have 10% unemployment and the number is growing and yet it was the reports from the banks scoring record profits that kept the Dollar on its feet.

But I have a different outlook, as I have read over the balance sheets over and again of the banks and their multi-Billion Dollar profits.

When an economy is bad, more people live check-to-check, and even tend to extend themselves more than at any time. When an economy is healthy, Banks derive profits from investments and to a lesser degree, fees and customer charges.

Now, in a time where home, car and personal loans have been dry, the fact that the economic growth is negative, and that the questionable securities have not recovered as an investment tool, leaves it hard to believe that banks are able to grow so much last quarter.

Looking at their reports, I can tell you that it is obvious where they are making their money from, and it is not a good sign for the economy.

In the US, when a bank customer goes beyond their account balance, they enter an overdraft territory in which they are charged obscene fees for having the bank cover their charges.

Now, in the past it had been a standard that the customer needed to apply and request this overdraft, and this is not to be mistaken for a typical loan or credit line which are different animals.

The customer would agree that if they charged using their bank car, or wrote a check, and there was no money in the account, they would pay a per-transaction fee and an interest fee calculated and prorated on a month to month basis. The interest is anywhere between 8-18% and the fees can be as high as $10 per transaction.

Now, according to Citigroup, Goldman and Bank of America, it seems as if 60% of their revenue was derived from “customer fees” and increase of 36% from the average between 2002 and 2008. So I dug a little further and here is the fact.

The average bank customer is paying, with fees and interest on overdraft, about 35% per month. Keep in mind that with the high fees, if a customer goes to a pharmacy and charges 1n $8 box of band-aids, he can be charged $18 plus interest on the full $18 as it is calculated at the end of the month.

Think about it, you have no money in your account and you make three charges for $100 in total, with $30 in fees plus interest on the $130 in total, you owe the bank $138. You took $100 and owe more than 1/3rd of that on top of your principle.

What the key is here is banks no longer ask customers if they want overdraft, they automatically approve every customer for it up to a set limit – like $5000. So even if you have no credit, if you have a bank account you do – and this is how the banks are making their money – 60% of it for that matter.

How does this affect the Forex online trader? It is just evidence that some Online Forex blogger has presented to you that the picture is not black and white showing recovery, there are problems and it is growing – growing enough that people en masses are borrowing and the banks are raping them on it, it is making a bad situation worse and the repercussions will come back to haunt everyone involved. Just watch retail sales and consumer prices – these will be telling numbers in the next few weeks.

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