What are the Limitations of Technical Analysis in Forex Trading?

To analyze the forex market two basic approaches can be made. One is the fundamental analysis that looks at growth factors of the country whose currencies are being traded. The second is of course technical analysis that analyzes chart patterns and indicators. While both are important in their own unique ways, the fact remains that for a beginner technical analysis is fundamental in context. In this article I will try to explain the limitations of technical analysis in forex trading.

What is technical analysis?

When you use technical analysis in forex trading you are actually using a set of technical indicators. These technical indicators could be for example Bollinger Bands, Pivot points, Moving Average or any of the other indicators you may have come across. And what do these technical indicators do? They help you determine when to enter or exit a trade of a particular forex currency. It is alright using these technical indicators as long as you are careful in the sense that you understand their importance correctly. You simply cannot download a technical indicator and then apply it blindly to your forex trading methodology. That would be a terrible mistake. You need to understand their significance. In other words, what I am trying to tell you are, technical indicators whatever they are, should constitute just a single part of your overall trading strategy. You could very well look at technical indicators as something that pin-points the exact entry and exit points of the currency you are dealing with. But the point is you should never reckon with these technical indicators in isolation. Doing so would be espousing the cause of the very limitations that these technical indicators possess.

Limitations of technical indicators

In order to study the forex limitations, consider for a moment an example of Moving Averages. You could well be using the 35 day, 50 day, 100 day or 200 day moving average. But the significant point you have to remember is that they could be valid only on a daily graph basis. For example some analysts would advise you to trade in the direction of the cross as for example when a 50 day moving average is crossed by the 13 day moving average, as it is usually interpreted as a good signal for doing so. But the problem is, apart from the fact that such crosses do not occur regularly, even if it were to happen it would work soundly only on a daily graph. The point is you should never lead yourself to a situation where you could well be imagining that you saw a cross arise, and reverse or uncross. This is something that could very well happen. Neither should you be looking at the moving average and anticipate that a cross would eventually arise. In other words, never use these indicators to work out a prognosis or else you would not be in tune with the market you wish to trade. Always consider these indicators as just a part of your trading strategy. Use them in conjunction with fundamental analysis. Therein lays your success in forex trading.
Now let's consider the example of the Bollinger bands. It works just fine in a range bound market where prices predictably oscillate between the two bands. Bollinger Bands too have their limitations. For example, the tag of the upper Bollinger Band is by itself not a whole-hearted signal to sell. It is just an indicative tag. Its just that, and nothing more, and nothing else. Similarly the tag of the lower Bollinger Band is not a whole-hearted signal to buy. Again it is only a tag, just indicative and nothing more. If for example, you try to "sell at the tops" and "buy at the bottoms" you could be in trouble if prices move further away from your initial entry point. This is perhaps a major limitation of the Bollinger Band as a technical indicator.

Conclusion:

Successful forex traders should understand the limitations of technical analysis. More importantly it should constitute just one part of your overall trading strategy. Recently I read an article about a survey conducted amongst major players that influence foreign currency markets. According to this survey, only 21% of forex traders use technical analysis as compared to 41% of forex traders who use fundamental analysis. Needless to say, the best course of action would be to use a combination of both.

FX Strategy Secrets

Taking Profit

Posted by Jed & kirk Norwood on May 18, 2009 · Leave a Comment

There are several approaches to taking profit in forex trading. For example some traders will put on several lots
on a trade then when the market reaches a predetermined level they will close a small portion of
the trade. They leave on the remainder lots so they can continue to be in the market and gain
profits. Then there are the traders that put on a small number of lots, add to the trade when they
get additional entry signals and when the market tells them that the current trend is coming to an
end then they close all of the positions.

If a trader is making money we can’t say the way they take the profit is bad. As long as we are
trying to make money on a trade why not maximize the profits on that trade. We have been thinking,
when the market reaches the point that a trader wants to take some profit and the market is still
moving why not put a stop loss at the predetermined exit point and let all of the lots continue to
run. There are a couple of ways the trade could be ended with a maximum amount of profit and a
minimum amount of loss.

The stop loss could be moved up as the market moves up to protect even larger amounts of profit.
When the market gives a strong exit signal then close all of the lots on the trade. If the market
retraces then continues in the original direction of the trade, at that point the trade can be
reentered and make profits all over again. We know there is no wrong or right way to make money.
Pick the way that fits your emotional ability, and trading style. In any event continue to make
money and have fun trading.

The Number One Reason For Washing Out As A Trader

The time a trader usually blows up his account comes when he has had a series of good forex trades
over the course of a day, week, or month. He starts to be confident and does not put his stop
on. It is late in the week he is a little tired makes one more trade leaves off the stop and
then the whole market turns and goes against him. He loses all he made and more. He did not
take time to use good risk management.

He is feeling low emotionally and his account is a wreck.

He should not dwell on the big mistake but go back to the basics of his trading plan. Review
the risk management and get back to the discipline that made him money the first part of the week.

When you over look risk management you have a greater risk of washing out of trading than any
other single thing. When you pay close attention to risk management you have the greatest
potential to make it as a trader.

A few small losses will not hurt the big wins that come along on a regular basis. This will
cause your account to grow on a steady basis.

TAKING THE NEWS TO SERIOUSLY

Reading the financial news papers, listening to all the financial television stations,
studying the economic reports, and visiting all of the chat rooms can be a big challenge.
You can lose prospective of why you are trading in the first place if you get caught up in
to much news. It is a good forex strategy to know some of the major things that are going on but to be a
good trader you do not need an over dose of news.

You need a combination of fundamental and technical. I lean more to the technicals.
Some of the things that I see happen to the traders that over dose on news are: Trying
to pick which way the market will go. Getting hooked on an opinion of what is going
to happen and lose all objectiveness as to what might happen. The market moves in
trends and the news will cause little bumps in the direction of the trend. When the
news dust settles the market returns to the major trend it was on. You can get spike
fever, chase the market movement and get caught from both directions in the market.
Even with all the news research one will not be the first to know what the market will
do based on the news alone. So by the time the trade comes along you are trading
discounted news that has already been factored into the price of the market. So By
using news to trade forex you are taking a gamble on which way the market will go.

The Market can make a positive move with bad news and a negative move with good news.
It is all tied to the sentiment of the market the way people react to the news not what
the news is.

Set Yourself Low Forex Goals

One of the common misconceptions that I have run across is that people think that if
you’re not hitting big home runs in your trading that you can’t make much money.
Nothing could be further from the truth. If you continually re-invest your money,
and you risk only a small percentage of the total on every trade, huge returns can
be realized. The following examples are only for illustration, and obviously they
are just hypothetical. I simply want you to understand that the returns can be
exponential without exposing yourself to a dangerous level of risk.

Example 1

Starting equity: $10,000
Monthly return: 6%
Compounded return after 1 year: 100%

At this rate of 6% per month, you would have about $1.2 Million after 7 years.

To break it down further, suppose you needed a 25 pip stop loss and you were only
risking 2% of your total equity. That’s $200 on a starting account of size of
$10,000, which means you could trade 8 minis. If you only made 20 pips net all
week that would be $160 per week, or $640/month, which is more than 6%! You see,
you don’t need to trade a lot, just be patient.

Example 2

Starting equity: $10,000
Monthly return: 10%
Compounded return after 1 year: 300%

At this rate of 10% per month, you would have about $1 Million after 4 years

Remember, have a realistic plan and think longer term. This isn’t a race, and as
you can see, the power of compounding can be very effective, so be patient and set
reasonable goals. All you really need to do is be consistent in the execution of
your trades, realize that there will be losses, but stick to the game plan. As
always, controlling risk is of paramount importance! Above all, do not trade with
money that is not truly risk capital. This means that if you lost it, it would not
change your life!

Advantages Of Forex Trading System Software

Discovering trends is not a simple job and just the once going in to a trend nearly all forex trading software will want to get the highest profit from this point. They want to be carried trends booking profits as long as to attain the system aim.

Some forex trading indicators have revealed a winner correctness higher than 65% which is really high for this type of systems. Stop loss placed immediately after entering a trade will bring extra confidence, mostly when you realize that our stop loss level is rarely hit. Swing trading forex trading system software have the advantage that you do not pay extreme spreads or charges as those you should pay when trading every day or intraday signals.

Risk Capital In Trading

Regardless of how best a system seems, how best a system works or how much cash it creates. Just “Risk Capital” or “Risk Funds” should be applied in trading. A person who does not contain “Risk Capital” or “Risk Funds” (funds they can have enough money to lose) should not trade in the Forex market.

System Neutrality

Forex trading system software applies the similar criterion and considerations to make signals each day, there is no prejudiced criterion concerned in the procedure. It is 100% mechanical; you can drive your commands beforehand with their Stop Loss, Profit goal, and no requirement to estimate or get prejudiced choices of where/when to exit foreign trade.

Nearly all system provides signals for 4 main pairs: Pair explanation identified as (EUR/USD) Euro to Dollar “Euro” GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar “Cable” USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc “Swissy” GBP/JPY British Pound / Japanese Yen.

Information About Margin In Forex Trade

Several forex traders are doubtful while applying the margin. But after that, they have small option and the majority of them have to employ the margin to do foreign trade.

One single lot includes 100,000 units of a currency in a normal account. One lot in Mini account may possibly include 10,000 units of a particular currency. This, as most of you would optimistically have the same opinion, is important cash to keep in an account. As well, the majority of people have been look to trade above one lot at a time.

And nearly all Forex trading firms need traders to have admission to margin funds. All in all there is just no options which will aid us turn clear of applying the margin in currency trading.

Significant aspect for a forex trader to bear in mind is that there are reasonable ways to employ the margin gainfully in addition to sensibly.

Margin is customizable: Margin is bendable and can be applied till the level at which the trader is comfy and thinks the requirement to exercise it. If the trader desires to play it protected, 5% to 10% of margin is measured comfy. For a trader who is start to taking a few risks, 40% to 50% percent of margin is measured standard or strong.

Therefore, the margin sum for every trade can be customized opening from zero to 100 percent. A person has to think every trade independently and has to create it a division of his long term forex currency trading strategy and create a well-versed verdict about how lot the margin is most appropriate for him.

Day Trading Forex Futures with Pivot Points

Currency trading is increasing in popularity among individual investors, especially those in the United States. Just a few short years ago, it was relatively difficult and costly to access the spot Forex market. But barriers have been broken down, competition has increased, and costs have fallen. As a result, more and more retail traders are entering the realm of spot Forex trading.

But there's another way to enter the world of currency trading, and it's through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The CME first offered Foreign Exchange (FX) futures in 1972. Today, the exchange offers futures on 41 currency pairs, options on 31 futures contracts, and over $60 billion in liquidity. Currency futures trade on the CME's renowned Globex platform, alongside other popular futures contracts such as the e-mini equity indices.

Spot vs. Futures

To be sure, there are a some big differences between the contracts that trade in the spot Forex market and the FX futures. Perhaps the biggest -- and arguably most important -- difference is that spot Forex contracts trade over the counter at no particular central location, while FX futures clear at the CME. The central clearing and guarantee of counterparty credit by the CME are huge benefits of FX futures over spot Forex contracts.

The dealing details differ dramatically between the two instruments. The table below details some of the biggest differences:

Over-the-counter (Spot, Forex) Foreign Exchange Futures

$2+ trillion daily turnover $60 billion in liquidity
Commission free Commissions
Guaranteed stops No guarantees
Fixed pip spread Bid/Ask spread
24 hour trading 23 hour trading
100:1 up to 400:1 leverage 20:1 to 50:1 leverage
Varying quote currencies All rates quoted in dollars
Plain vanilla & Exotic options Plain vanilla options
Mini accounts Mini contracts (limited)
Interest debits & credits Carrying costs
Automatic rollover 3 month expiration cycle

Personal Preference

Whether you trade spot contracts or futures on currencies will depend upon your own risk tolerance, equity, and other needs. I've traded spot, through several different dealers, and the futures for many years. I continue to use both instruments in varying situations, alternating my selection to fit different strategies.

I like to use the spot contracts when executing very short-term strategies, such as a straddle surrounding a high profile economic announcement or central bank meeting. For example, I would use the EUR/USD spot contract to execute a trade during a Federal Reserve announcement or Non-farm payrolls release. Or I would use the USD/JPY spot contract to trade a Bank of Japan meeting. The guaranteed stops that some spot Forex dealers offer are very useful when trading around a volatile announcement like a central bank meeting.

Additionally, I favor the spot contracts when trading cross rates -- the exchange rates that exclude the U.S. dollar; for example: EUR/JPY, GBP/CHF, AUD/NZD, and GBP/HUF. Cross rates can be an excellent tool to take advantage of varying degrees of relative strength in individual currencies. And they are a great way to trade the currency market when the majors are at an equilibrium (read: trading range). You can find tremendous trends in the cross rates, and you can find hundreds of cross rates at many spot Forex dealers. On the other hand, futures on cross rates are comparatively illiquid and limited.

But for the most part, I trade the currency futures. That's because the cost of trading futures is, in most cases, lower than trading spot Forex. I've found futures cost about $20, or less, per round turn, while the spot Forex contracts cost between $30 to $50, and up, per round turn. The lower cost of trading currency futures is why I use the instrument in all of my day trading strategies, including the pivot point methodology.

(But please know that you can apply spot Forex contracts to the methodology that I'm about to show you.)

Pivot Points

Pivot points are a popular tool used by futures traders in all sorts of markets, ranging from equity indices to crude oil. And, sure enough, pivot points are readily applied to trading currency futures.

Pivot points are support and resistance levels derived from the previous period's high, low, and closing values. There are a variety of pivot values with which to trade, including monthly, weekly, and daily values. You could even calculate hourly values. When determining which period to trade with, you've got to consider your time frame as an individual and your particular style. I'll use daily pivot points for the purpose of this article since the focus is day trading.

Daily pivot points give a structure to each new trading day in the currency market. With these values you can use traditional support and resistance techniques to enter and exit trades. But before I get to the strategy, I'll show you how to calculate pivot values.

Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
Resistance 1 (R1) = (2 x Pivot Point) - Low
Support 1 (S1) = (2 x Pivot Point) - High
Resistance 2 (R2) = Pivot Point + (Resistance 1 - Support 1)
Support 2 (S2) = Pivot Point - (Resistance 1 - Support 1)

(Pivot values for several different currency pairs are posted on the TradingMarkets web site every day.)

The pivot values are plotted as horizontal levels which, in turn, serve as support and resistance. The pivot point itself can be thought of as the day's mid-point, or fulcrum. It's where the buyers and sellers meet to determine the day's trend in a currency pair. The support and resistance levels that are plotted around the pivot point are just that: potential support and resistance.

A daily pivot point (in green), S2, S1, R1, and R2 values are plotted on the chart below of the EUR/USD FX future. The chart is a 5-minute interval. Notice how the Euro broke above the pivot point early in the day, and then proceeded to trade up to R1, where it met resistance and gyrated for the rest of the day.


Source: Quote.com

Follow The Intraday Trend

The power of pivot points is unleashed when you follow an unfolding trend during the day, and use the pivot values to measure the magnitude of trend. Additionally, the pivot points can be used to determine entry points into a trade. Applying simple breakout and breakdown entries around pivot points is a powerful way of using the tool.

An example of following the trend of the day as it unfolds, and entering trades on the break of pivot values, is illustrated on the 5-minute chart below of the JPY/USD contract. In this example, the Yen began the day near its pivot value, rolled over from R1, and proceeded to breakdown below the pivot point, S1, and S2. The pair dropped by about 60 ticks, providing ample opportunity for a day trader to make money on each breakdown below support. These types of intraday trends unfold a few times throughout the trading week, and they are relatively easy to exploit by following the futures contract through its pivot values.


Source: Quote.com

A second way of leveraging the power of pivots in the currency futures market is by adding a technical indicator that can pinpoint buy and sell signals. You will still want to use traditional support and resistance techniques around the pivot values. The purpose of adding to the indicator is to help in the timing of an entry into a trade. Above all else, though, you want to trade in the direction of the unfolding trend.

The MACD (12,26,9) is added to the 5-minute Euro chart below. The MACD generates simple buy and sell signals with the crossing of the fast and slow lines. Quite simply, it's time to buy when the fast line crosses above the slow. Conversely, it's time to sell when the fast line crosses below the slow line. Only the buy signals are highlighted on the chart below because the Euro was in an upward trend during the day. The sell signals are ignored due to the upward trend in the contract.

The Euro began the day at 1.2640 and ended near 1.2740 for a move of roughly 100 ticks. That's a lot of potential profit, part of which could have been captured by simply following the trend of the day and taking the buy signals coming from the MACD.


Source: Quote.com

Pivot Point Tips And Tricks

Trading with pivot points is not a big secret. Floor traders and dealing desks have been applying the methodology for decades in the currency market. But what separates the profitable traders from the losers is the simple act of following the trend of the day, cutting losses short, and letting profits run to the next pivot value. In addition, there are a few observations I've made over the years that I can add to the simple truth of following the trend.

The first tip I want to share is that the best trend days usually unfold when the currency begins the trading day near its pivot point. You might have already made this observation in the two above examples of the Euro and Yen. If you didn't, then take a second and jump back to the above charts, and note how the Euro and Yen began the day at or very near their pivot points. There are usually two or three days out of the week during which the majors such as the Euro, Yen, Pound, and Franc begin trading at their daily pivot. These are the days to look for a big trend to unfold.

If the currency that you're trading begins the day far away from the pivot, either below S2 or above R2, then it's probably a day that you want to walk away from. When a currency opens the day at one of the daily pivot extremes, it usually spends the rest of the session gyrating around that level. Avoid trying to trade a reversal of the overnight trend. Occasionally it might occur, but more often than not a big overnight trend will stall out at R2 or S2. The temptation is there to try to squeeze out a small profit, or bet on a reversal of the overnight trend. But the reality is that these are the days that can destroy a trader's equity.

You will find two examples below of strong overnight trends leading to massive gaps at the open of New York trading in the futures market. The first is an example of a gap up in the Euro. The pair opened at R2, where it spent the rest of the session. The second example is of a gap down in the Pound. The contract opened below S2, and spent the rest of the day gyrating in a tight range.


Source: Quote.com


Source: Quote.com

These days are best left to the floor traders. In the long run, you'll be better off not even trying to trade during days when the currency futures stage a substantial gap, either high or lower. You'll be better of by waiting for those days when the currency futures open near their pivot points.

Profit With Pivots

Day trading with pivot points can be applied to the spot Forex market just as they are in the currency futures market. Support and resistance, and the techniques that accompany these price levels, are consistent across all markets. In fact, pivot points have been used across dealing desks for decades in the spot Forex market. To the individual investor, however, it makes more sense to use currency futures when day trading simply because of the lower costs associated with trading futures.

The most important point to remember when applying pivot points to day trading currency futures is to follow the trend of the day, and simply look to enter into an unfolding trend as a pair makes its way through pivot values. Pay special attention to those days when the currency opens at or very near its pivot point. And avoid trading when a contract opens far away from its pivot point, at or beyond S2 and R2 values.

Good luck!

Eric Utley is a full-time trader with over a decade of experience in equities, equity options, futures, and currencies. He specializes in trading currencies, using a combination of quantitative, technical, and fundamental analysis. He is the lead contributor to INVESToolsCT.com, manages a currency trading blog, produces educational programs, and hosts a weekly online seminar.